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Delays: The Hidden Troublemakers
Now that your head is spinning with all these loops, let’s add one more layer of complexity. Another thing that makes understanding the behavior of complex systems so challenging is the existence of delays in the system. Every link in a system contains a delay. Sometimes delays are imperceptibly short (like the time between when the traffic signal turns green and when the person behind you honks his horn). At other times, they’re interminably long (like waiting for a major marketing campaign to start generating sales).
Delays come in four basic “flavors”: physical, transactional, informational, and perceptual. Physical delays represent the amount of time it takes for actual “stuff” to move from one place to the other or to change from one state to another; for example, shipping products from the warehouse to retailers, or converting raw materials into useful products. Every transaction also takes time to complete, whether it’s a phone call or a series of contract negotiations—these can be called transactional delays. Then there are the delays associated with communicating information about the physical changes or decisions that have been made. Even with all our modern, high-speed communications systems, informational delays can still be quite long, because transmission does not necessarily equal communication. (That is, just because information was sent does not mean it was received and understood accurately.) The fourth source of delay is often the trickiest— delays in perception. The physical changes have taken place (after a delay), decisions have been made, and the information about the change has been communicated. But, our beliefs and assumptions are often so deep that even if the reality on which they are based changes, our perceptions don’t necessarily shift as easily. (It takes a long time to teach an old dog new tricks!)
These four kinds of delays are neither good nor bad; it’s how we handle them that determines whether they’ll cause trouble. In our rush to get things done quickly, we tend to underestimate the true delays in the system or even ignore them. But, delays are important to notice, because they can make a system’s behavior unpredictable and confound our efforts to produce the results we want, as we will see in the next section.
YOU TRY IT: DELAYS
Think of a process that you are responsible for managing—landing a new contract, for example. Now think through the whole process and identify the four different kinds of delays that may be involved— physical, transactional, informational, and perceptual. For each delay that you identify, estimate both the current as well as the theoretical minimum delay time. Now assess how your decision-making delay times compare with the other delays in the process. Where are your bottlenecks? You may discover that speeding some delays won’t help if you don’t shorten other delays first.
STOCKS AND FLOWS: ANOTHER SYSTEMS THINKING TOOL
There’s another way besides causal loop diagrams to depict our understanding of systemic structure. It’s called a stock and flow diagram.
To create or read one of these diagrams, you first need to know what stocks and flows are. Stocks (also called accumulators) are anything that accumulate and that can be measured at one point in time, such as savings, population, the amount of water in a bathtub, and so on. Flows (or rates) represent things that change over time, such as deposits into a checking account, the inflation rate, etc.
Unlike causal loops, stock and flow diagrams provide information about rates of change. Combined with causal loops, they show how the various stocks and flows in the system influence one another and how the feedback flows through the system.
These diagrams are also used to build computer simulation models; the model builder assigns initial values to the stocks (such as “savings equals $2,000 at time zero”) and rates for the flows (such as “$20 savings per month”).
The diagram below identifies the various parts of a stock and flow diagram.

For more about stocks and flows, see Systems Thinking Tools, by Daniel H. Kim (Pegasus Communications, 1994).